Some cool Gold Nugget images:

Bernard Otto Holtermann and the world’s largest “nugget” of gold, North Sydney, ca. 1874-1876 / montage photograph by American and Australasian Photographic Company


Image by State Library of New South Wales collection
Three photographs were used to create this image of Holtermann, (supposedly holding the worlds’ largest accumulation of rock and gold ever brought to the surface in one piece). He was posed in the studio with his hand on a headclamp, the nugget was inserted and both placed on a photograph of the verandah of his mansion, built from the proceeds of his goldmine. The "nugget" was found in Hill End, New South Wales on 19th October 1872. More than half of the 630 lbs weight was pure gold, value 12,000 pounds (,000). With gold worth say 00 per ounce, the value today would be over $ A7,000,000. Amazingly Holtermann’s mine had already made him rich before the discovery of this boulder and there was reputed to be an even larger aggregate in the mine!

Format: Photograph

Notes: Find more detailed information about this photograph: acms.sl.nsw.gov.au/item/itemDetailPaged.aspx?itemID=888373

Search for more great images in the State Library’s collections: acms.sl.nsw.gov.au/search/SimpleSearch.aspx

From the collection of the State Library of New South Wales www.sl.nsw.gov.au

Gold Nuggets


Image by betta design
Gold nuggets prospected by friend in northern Brazil, over a serviette

Pepitas de ouro encontradas no solo no norte do Brasil, sobre um guardanapo de papel

To browse through my Brazilian photos using flickriver/ Para ver minhas fotos do Brasil com o flickriver

Or here to see photos with descriptions / ou aqui para ler as descrições das fotos

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by ulterior epicure

Stalking the Next Gold Nugget

Stalking the Next Gold Nugget

I am going to describe how an expert would use levels of thinking in an applied prediction situation such as to find gold nuggets.  The approach would just as easily apply to evaluating the potential of a property for mining operations, though I assume most of us would be happy to find the next nugget. 

Prediction of anything consists of using two different extreme approaches in a blended combination.  As extremes, they can be described as intuitive on the one hand, in contrast to logic and the scientific method, on the other.  All prediction as we normally think of it, consists of this blend, even when you are watching the presentation of the weather forecast on the evening news.  The extremes were even described differently by the ancients.  The language term Vaticinator from the Latin meaning to divine, perceive intuitively, augur, or use mystic knowledge, is the better definition for prediction in the absence of physical data.  Praedictum from the Latin is the language term meaning prediction or foretelling of future events, which applies to the presence of physical data.  There is an important fundamental distinction between prediction and forecasting as used in science, and intuition and prophecy, which we often associate with the paranormal or religious.  Nevertheless, some combination of the two extremes is usually the basis of most good prediction and, therefore, prospecting.

All science based prediction has general fundamental assumptions and principles that are straightforward.  All prediction is determined by the measurable characteristics of the variables under study, and their interaction with the environment, during a specific time boundary or episode.  All prediction involves assumptions regarding the underlying nature of the variables, and what happens that is relevant during the duration of the time envelope.  You need to have an observable database for the scientific method to work. 

So, prediction as the term is used herein uses a data base of at least one prior data point of same or similar information to that which is to be the target of our effort.  To find the next gold nugget you must have first found a previous one.  The information of the data base is collected by our senses.  The information is manipulated according to the rules of the scientific method, evaluated statistically, and the validity is judged according to the laws of valid reasoning to produce a specific target value for a specific point on a time horizon.  That may seem like a long and pedantic description, but it is necessary to be unambiguous as what we are doing.  Praedictum is the descriptive title for such prediction where there is a data base.  The data base consists of the assignment of numbers or numerals to objects or events according to rules. 

Accordingly, there are five theoretical levels of such prediction.  Each has merit.  At Level 1 Theory, I assume that the best measure of the variable I wish to estimate at the next time horizon will be the observed measure defined in terms of operations used to measure it at this time horizon.  The environment is assumed to remain stable.  Inferences are minimal and short term.  There are no statistical assumptions made regarding either the measure or its environment.  Prediction quality is threatened by any change in either the measure of the variable or the environment.  This Level 1 Theory of prediction does not tell you when to expect a change in environment or what the effect will be when you detect the change.  Remember, even a single trend analysis is not possible with this Level 1 Theory strategy.  Even so there is some evidence for at least some stability of prediction across time.  Also, there are times when the environment is consistent and Level 1 Theory is as good as any other.  A great deal of prediction is of this sort.  It often works because in a short time episode there is a lot more orderliness and inertia to the universe of experience than there is randomness.  So, where you find one gold nugget is assumed to be the best place to look for another.  Whatever your method, pan, dredge, or metal detector, just keep doing what you are doing and in the same place.  Because more exciting things are possible, it leads us to the necessity of considering the next higher level of predictive theory.  That would be Level 2 Theory, the Actuarial.

Level 2 uses a multiple sample data base of related information and typically a statistical model.  At Level 2 Theory, I assume that the best measure of the variable I wish to estimate at the next time horizon can be inferred from the most recent trend of the data base of the observed measure of it during the most recent time episode.  It is the stuff for

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